The Future of Protection: Preparing for an Evolving Landscape of Threats

The future of protection and personal security may look very different from what we know today

As we stand on the precipice of significant social, political, and technological changes, the future of protection and personal security may look very different from what we know today. While we cannot predict with certainty exactly how the landscape of violence and conflict will evolve, the trends we’re already seeing indicate that we are on the cusp of a major shift.

This article serves as a speculative exercise to explore what these changes might look like. The future of protection and security will likely involve new challenges and opportunities, and the only way to stay ahead of these shifts is to begin preparing now. As professionals in the protection industry, we must be proactive rather than reactive—anticipating the threats we may face in order to make strategic decisions early.

While we cannot count on the certainty of these projections, the patterns already visible in culture, politics, and technology offer a valuable opportunity to think critically about what is ahead. By considering potential future threats, we can sharpen our decision-making and ensure that we’re equipped with the resources and knowledge we need to stay one step ahead.

What Threats are We Most Likely to Face?

In many examples, the threats we see are localized, individual acts of violence and asymmetric warfare becoming more prevalent.

The most notable recent events, particularly in the States, use violence to achieve political ends. We are seeing those events resulting in violent attacks on businesses, executives, politicians, and groups who oppose each other ideologically or politically.

Domestically and internationally we are seeing warfare and terrorism conducted using low cost and ready available weapons. One of the most primal weapons that I have discussed before is the use of arson as a means for effective attacks.

Aside from the high-cost, high-tech bombing of Iran nuclear facilities by the U.S., we've seen spectacular tactical results from low-cost, low-tech attacks recently:

• Ukraine's successful attack with drones on Russian bombers in June 2025, which involved launching drones from trucks concealed in civilian vehicles, allowing Ukrainian forces to strike deep within Russian territory. These drones, each costing under $1,000, were equipped with explosive payloads and, in some cases, artificial intelligence to navigate and target specific aircraft. The drones successfully destroyed or severely damaged over 40 Russian bombers valued at approximately $7 billion.

• In early 2025, Ukrainian drones targeted multiple Russian oil facilities, including the Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery in Kstovo, located 520 miles from the front line. These attacks resulted in significant fires and production suspensions, underscoring the vulnerability of even distant energy assets to low-cost drone strikes.

• In February 2025, a Ukrainian drone struck the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station in Russia's Krasnodar region, part of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. This pipeline is crucial for Kazakhstan's oil exports, and the attack led to a temporary shutdown, affecting the country's key export route and government revenues. 

• Amidst the January 2025 devastating Palisades and Eaton wildfires in Los Angeles, several arson-related incidents were reported.

• On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a multifaceted assault on Israel. The attack began with a barrage of rockets followed by ground incursions. Hamas used motorized paragliders and motorcycles to infiltrate Israeli territory. The use of paragliders allowed Hamas fighters to bypass Israel's sophisticated air defense systems, such as the Iron Dome, and land directly within Israeli communities. Attackers on motorcycles executed rapid assaults, targeting civilians and security personnel. This combination of aerial and ground tactics overwhelmed Israeli defenses and led to significant casualties. The attack resulted in over 1,200 Israeli deaths and the abduction of approximately 250 individuals.

• In July 2021, the oil tanker MT Mercer Street was attacked off the coast of Oman by drones, resulting in two crew members' deaths. The attack caused significant damage to the ship and escalated tensions in the region, demonstrating the potential of drones to target maritime oil infrastructure.

• In July 2020, a modified DJI Mavic 2 drone was found near a Pennsylvania power substation, carrying a copper wire intended to cause a short circuit. Although the attack was unsuccessful, it marked the first known instance of a drone targeting U.S. energy infrastructure, highlighting the potential threat posed by commercially available drones.

The ability of low-cost technology to disrupt the operations of major state powers without the need for extensive military resources or sophisticated logistics is rapidly changing the calculus of modern conflict. These developments suggest a future where nations must protect themselves not only from traditional threats but also from a growing wave of commercially-driven, technologically-empowered sabotage.

This shift in the nature of warfare is complemented by more traditional forms of covert operations, such as the case of Chinese operatives attempting to smuggle in a certain strain of fungus that could have devastating effects on American agriculture. While this example may seem like an isolated act, it’s part of a growing trend where nations or groups, using low-cost biological agents or cyber tactics, are able to target vulnerable sectors—like food production or energy—while remaining under the radar of conventional military responses. The potential for these types of attacks to cause widespread disruptions highlights the growing vulnerability of critical infrastructure, and the need for protective strategies that go beyond traditional military assets.

Emerging Technologies and New Approaches to Protection

Technology is changing how we think about protection. Drones, AI-powered surveillance, and cybersecurity solutions are already being integrated into security protocols and may become indispensable in future protective strategies. These innovations could dramatically change how we anticipate and respond to threats—from surveillance drones that monitor an area to autonomous tools that can take action when human intervention is needed. The future of protection may involve an even more integrated approach that combines physical, technological, and digital defense strategies.

However, with the democratization of these technologies, comes a new set of challenges. Individuals will increasingly need to be educated and prepared to navigate this complex landscape. Are we ready to embrace the future of protection that will undoubtedly involve both personal readiness and technological literacy?

The Need for Proactive, Decisive Action

The real challenge is not just preparing for the future, but deciding to take action early enough to stay ahead of it. It’s easy to become reactive when a threat materializes, but by the time we respond, we are well behind the curve -- we've already suffered the attack. The future of protection requires us to think ahead, engage with new threats, and prepare our strategies, training, and tools now, so that we can face likely challenges head-on when the time comes.

By imagining future threats and working together with fellow professionals to address them, we can ensure we remain on the front foot—ready to handle the complexities of future security needs. It’s up to us to allocate the resources, training, and intelligence to create a robust defense framework for tomorrow, so we’re not left scrambling when the next wave of threats arrives.

Join the Conversation

This article is a thought exercise—a call to action to our fellow professionals in the protection industry. Let’s discuss, debate, and plan for a future where threats may look very different from what we’ve known before. Share your thoughts, experiences, and strategies for staying ahead of the evolving landscape of conflict and protection. Together, we can ensure that we are prepared for what comes next.